Analysts at the nationwide financial services center Finzayavka forecast a substantial slowdown in consumer lending. As such, analysts worry that in 2013, the growth rate of consumer lending may be reduced by more than 40 percent to 30 or even 20 percent. The most significant factors that could lead to negative developments would be the recent actions of the Russian Central Bank, which is the consumer credit market regulator.

The Central Bank considers it risky to increase the volume of unsecured loans and intends to introduce restrictions. As of March 1, 2013, the minimum requirements for banks issuing unsecured loans will become more stringent. Effective July 1, the so-called high-yielding unsecured retail loans will be treated as high-risk.

The banks will inevitably react to the measures of raising interest rates by increasing the load on their customers. In addition, the banks will become more selective in expanding the customer base through the use of more reliable intelligence products. Approximately one in eight customers today is in arrears on unsecured loans. Obviously, the market regulator considers the situation to be critical enough for taking action.

“Altogether, two major market trends are readily visible to the end of the year,” said the head of Finzayavka Vitaly Belov. “On the one hand, the interest rates on loans will rise. On the other, the share of risky loans on the market will go down. Most analysts put the lending rate at 20 to 35 percent. Basically, it will be a major change in the dynamics of the situation and, of course, a signal to consumers to take advantage of the most favorable conditions, which still exist on the market.”