First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev has said he thinks the world’s economy will never again see annual growth of more than 5%.

The world economy, Ulyukayev said, has found “a new normalcy.” “I am against discussing the situation using the terms ‘crisis’ or ‘recession.’ I call this situation a new normalcy. It is a new normalcy, and it is here for a very long time,” he said at Gaidar Readings on December 15.

One facet of this serious normalcy is a drop in economic growth rates in both developed and developing countries, Ulyukayev said.

This new normality will also be characterized by great volatility on all commodity and money markets, he said. “From time to time there will be local blips that many will call ‘waves of crisis,’” he said.

The exhaustion of the usual state instruments and mechanisms will be seen, Ulyukayev said, as regards monetary and fiscal policy and the stimulation of demand.

“The situation will become more difficult, and there will be fewer ways to respond. There should be no illusions that the state is able to fundamentally intervene or fundamentally change the situation,” Ulyukayev said.

Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin expressed his own agreement that the economic situation will be more difficult than expected earlier. He said that at this point it is hard to say how and when world economic events would redound on Russia.

“How a second wave will go and how it will affect Russia – will this be for a half-year, a year, or in 2013 – is difficult to say. But that it will be more complicated than we expected, I agree with that,” Kudrin said.

The risks of economic slowdown in Russia have mounted lately, Ulyukayev told reporters.

“It seems they have mounted,” Ulyukayev said.

“I think there is still a balance [between economic growth and inflation], but nevertheless the risks for the estimate of economic growth are mounting,” he said.

The Central Bank has said at its last few rate-setting meetings that there is still a balance between inflation and economic growth. The CB left all rates unchanged in October and November. Its directors next meet to discuss rates on December 23.

Ulyukayev said the Central Bank was satisfied with the inflationary situation.

“The situation with inflation is to our satisfaction, both statistically and in real world terms,” he said.

The Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) has said inflation was 0.1% for the week December 6-12. Consumer prices grew 0.1% for the fifth week in succession. They grew 0.2% each week for the two weeks prior to that. Inflation was 0.2% since the beginning of December 2011 and 5.9% since the beginning of January 2011, compared with 0.4% and 8.1% in the respective periods of last year. Inflation was 1.1% in December 2010 as a whole. It slowed to 6.6% in annual terms by December 14, from 6.8% at the end of November.

The government’s official forecast for 2011 inflation is 6.5%-7%. However, the Economic Development Ministry has already issued a new inflation forecast for the year – 6.2%-6.5%, including 0.6% in the month of December. Inflation this year, is most likely to end up nearer the lower end of that range, said Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach.

An inflation consensus forecast of analysts compiled by Interfax at the end of last month produced a figure of 6.9%, but low inflation in November (0.4%) and early December will likely lead to a forecast revision downwards.

Russia’s budgetary surplus this year could be 0.8%-0.9% of GDP, or higher than the Finance Ministry forecasts, Ulyukayev said. The Finance Ministry expects a surplus of 0.5% of GDP, Ulyukayev said.

“I think it will be bigger, 0.8-0.9% of GDP, up to 1%,” Ulyukayev said.

Russia’s financial sector is in good shape, and offers opportunity for borrowing, Ulyukayev said. “We have fairly high growth in crediting, and the credit portfolio will grow 24%-25% this year,” he said.

Russia is seeing a fairly substantial outflow of capital, however, he said. It will top $70 billion this year, and could even reach $80 billion, he said.

World economic events affect Russia in two ways – by commodity prices that determine state finances (budget) and business finances, the inflow or outflow of capital that determines financial market policy and the liquidity situation, Ulyukayev said. “One of these indicators is operating now, the other is not,” he said, noting that commodity prices remain high and company and state finances are in good shape.

Three factors are significant now, he said. First and foremost is the expectation of economic recession in the United States. Experts are not sure if it will happen or not, he said. “They expect slow growth from America, but by my approaches – normal growth rates, 1.5%-2% [of GDP] per year,” he said.

The second important factor is how the situation in Europe develops. A consensus forecast suggests that Europe will see zero economic growth next year, in the future – possibly a little more, Ulyukayev said.

The third factor is economic growth in developing-market countries, China and India most of all, he said.

World economic events are reflected in Russia usually, Ulyukayev said. “For Russia, corresponding consequences arise. Russia usually imports elements of the macroeconomic landscape that develop globally,” he said.

Russia had capital outflows of about $10 billion in November, Ulyukayev told reporters.

“Around $10 billion, or less in October,” he said, adding that this was a preliminary estimate.

Capital outflows were around $74 billion in January-November, he said.

Ulyukayev said later at Gaidar Readings in Moscow that “significant capital outflows” were expected this year. “It looks like there will be more than the forecast we have stood by. More than $70 billion. It’ll be $80 billion or thereabouts,” he said.

The Finance Ministry thinks capital outflows could be $85 billion, Anton Siluanov, the acting Finance Minister, has said.

Ulyukayev said this could even be the case. “Theoretically it’s possible,” he said.

The Central Bank of Russia has since this month sold several hundreds of millions of dollars, Ulyukayev said.

“We have a marginal volume in December – several hundreds of millions of dollars of sales for the first half of the month,” Ulyukayev said.