Gazprom reached another benchmark in the volume of natural gas exports, as it is now on track to exporting more than 160 billion cubic meters of gas to countries outside the C.I.S. in the current year. The company credits its success to the weakness of its competitors and the unwillingness of competitors to take greater shares of the market.
In connection with the upbeat announcement, Alexander Medvedev, Gazprom’s deputy chief executive officer, is enthusiastic about the company’s plans. Cold winter weather played along with the company’s optimistic expectations. A surge in gas consumption, as well as the contraction of supplies from Algeria, Libya, Norway, Nigeria, and Great Britain allowed Gazprom to reach its high targets. According to Mr. Medvedev, the revenue of the company is expected to go up from the USD55.9 billion figure seen last year.
Alexey Miller, Gazprom’s chief executive, assured the investors and the media that exports to Europe will only be increasing over time. As such, in the words of Gazprom’s highest ranking corporate officer, the situation on the European market is favorable for Gazprom.
Furthermore, large volumes of liquefied natural gas are now being shipped to the markets in Asia, where prices are higher. Today, various companies are shifting to natural gas for their energy needs. In Japan, according to Mr. Miller, this trend has taken on exceptional proportions. According to the top Gazprom executive, Europe also needs Gazprom’s natural gas in larger quantities. At times, demand and consumption increases by 30 percent within a month.
Still, Azerbaijan, Iran, and the United States are big players on the European market. Azerbaijan competes with other natural gas producers, such as Algeria and Libya. Algeria and Libya have been decreasing production recently due to industry problems. The Shah Deniz consortium in Azerbaijan will compensate for the reduction of natural gas supplies from Africa. The Shah Deniz-2 venture will produce 16 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. Azerbaijan’s project also involves constructing pipelines to Turkey and Italy. Total European demand is around 547 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. According to Gazprom’s assessment, the United
States today can be a very limited supplier of LNG to the European market due to its remote location.
Natural gas in America is one-third cheaper than the gas sold in Europe which suggests a lucrative trade opportunity. Still, with time, the cost for natural gas production in the U.S. will double. At the same time, the cost of production for Gazprom is way below two-thirds of the European costs.
In case prices drop, many natural gas producers, such as Australian corporations, will not be able to break even. Once companies stop producing, a shortage of natural gas on the market would be bound to occur, and prices will go up again. Iran, on the other hand, is oriented towards the internal natural gas market, rather than exports. In 2002, Iran produced 71 billion cubic meters of natural gas; in 2012, it produced some 140 billion cubic meters. Other countries in the Middle East are also oriented towards their internal markets. These realities and trends leave Gazprom as the only major player on the European market.