The Economic Development Minis­try of Russia states that the country’s oil production can reach as much as 525 million tons by 2030. This fig­ure is expected to be achieved by extracting oil from tight reserves. In line with the long-term development plan compiled by the Ministry, the forecasted figure can rise as a result of the development of a bigger quan­tity of tight reserves as the economic appeal of these projects increases. Incentive measures to stimulate re­covery play a substantial part in tight oil exploration and production.

Rosnedra, which is the Russian Federal Subsurface Resources Agen­cy, has forecasted that already by 2025 the volume of tight oil reserves in the country’s overall production will be around 52 million tons.

Tight reserves are not considered conventional and require additional foreign and domestic investments. To develop those reserves, Ameri­can companies have committed to spending USD100 billion in Russia, matched by Russian investors.

Both Rosneft and Lukoil have non- conventional oil reserves. Rosneft claims to have some 1.3 billion tons of potential tight oil, while Lukoil has determined it can sustain around 10 million tons in tight oil yearly produc­tion from the Achimov oil beds. East and West Siberia, as well as Yakutia provide potential oil development op­portunities to meet the 2030 target. Industrial oil production is expected to start at the Yurubcheno-Tokhoma, the Russkoye, the East Messoyakha, the West Mesoyakha, the Tagul Vostochno-Messoyakhskoye, and the Kyuymba fields before 2018. Sakhalin-3 oil development in the Arctic seabed is expected to begin around 2020.

Oil production in East Siberia in 2012 accounted for 6.7 percent of Russia’s total output. By 2030 this share is expected to reach 16 per­cent. Russia plans to increase oil export volume by approximately 13 million tons. China, with its rising oil demand and a growing economy, is viewed as a potential market. Rus­sia’s total oil exports are expected to reach 259 million tons around 2020, in part thanks to contracts signed with China. The entire Asia-Pacific region, including China, consumes 33 percent of Russia’s total crude oil exports. 260 million tons of Russian oil is expected to be earmarked for exports by 2030. The Asia-Pacific re­gion will consume 36 percent of that volume, while the European demand is likely to decrease.

Oil refining volumes are not expect­ed to change drastically. By 2030, refineries are expected to produce 256 million tons of product at a 91.4-percent refining depth. These results are to be made possible in large measures because of technical upgrades to existing refineries, the construction of new plants, as well as the establishment of the Eastern Petrochemicals Company by Rosneft.

Refinery modernization, coupled with pricing and energy preservation may lead to a decline in petroleum products consumption. Such a de­cline may result in the exports’ falling to 104 million tons per year in 2030, according to conservative forecasts. The accelerated forecast paints a dif­ferent scenario. Total oil production will reach 535 million tons, 264 million tons of which will be exported annu­ally by 2030. According to this prog­nosis, refining will increase by 262 million tons by 2030, requiring the construction of two new refineries.