Russia’s economy continued to grow in September 2011. With the exception of seasonal factors, it went up 0.5% month-on-month, the federal Economic Development Ministry stated. The growth was mainly provided by trade and construction industry. High growth rates were also registered in national agriculture (mainly due to the low base of the last year).

GDP

Russia’s GDP growth in September 2011 equaled 5.7% year-on-year and 4.2% over nine months, the Economic Development Ministry said.

The nominal GDP value in the first half of 2011 according to preliminary data, amounted to RUR 37 088 billion, including 13 753 billion in 3q11.

According to the Economic Development Ministry, Russia’s economy growth in 2011 will total 4.2%.

Industry

The industrial production index in September equaled 103.9% year-on-year and 105.2% from January through September 2011.

The major contribution to the overall industrial growth, which amounted to 4.4%, was provided by manufacturing industries (90.6%), including chemical industries (2.6%, production growth went up 1.6%), production of transport and equipment (47.3%, production growth increased 21.9%), production of machinery and equipment (2.1%, production growth up 2%), production of electric, electronic, and optical equipment (9.5% and 7.1% respectively), basic metals and fabricated metal products (18.3% and 4.4%), manufacture of other non-metal mineral products (7.3% and 6.4%), manufacture of rubber and plastic products (4.6% and 7% respectively).

The growth in mining industries in September 2011 amounted to 1.4% year-on-year (8.9% contribution to the overall industrial growth). At the same time, the growth in production and distribution of electricity, gas, and water totaled 0.2% of the value for September 2010 (0.6% contribution to the overall growth figure).

The overall industrial production growth, with the exception of seasonal and calendar factors, went up in August after a slight decline in July and dropped in September (0.2% in July, 0.4% in August, and 0.3% in September).

Retail trade dynamics continued showing high growth rates in the reporting period, compared to the corresponding period of 2010. Retail trade growth in September equaled 9.2% year-on-year. At the same time, it dropped 0.4% month-on-month, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) reported.

Altogether, retail trade dynamics in January-September 2011 were slightly ahead of the dynamics shown in the corresponding period of 2010 (6.2% in January-September 2011 and 6.0% in the first nine months of 2010).

The retail trade increase in September 2011, with the exception of the seasonal factor, totaled 0.7% month-on-month, and 16.5% year-on-year, the Economic Development Ministry noted.

The value of new construction amounted to RUR 3 221.6 billion over nine months, up 7.9% compared to the corresponding period of 2010.

Russia’s construction companies commissioned residential housing with a total floor space of 5.5mn sq. m. in September 2011, up 21.8% year-on-year. Construction enterprises of all forms of ownership built 67 900 new apartments in the reporting month (402 000 in January-September 2011).

Consumer price index and inflation

The consumer price inflation in January-September 2011 amounted to 4.7%, compared to 6.2% in the corresponding period of 2010, which is the lowest figure in the modern history of Russia. Consumer prices went down 0.3% from July through September.

The consumer price index in September 2011 equaled 100%, including foodstuffs (99.4%), non-food products (100.7%), and services (99.9%).

A certain decrease in consumer prices for goods and services was registered in 44 regions of Russia in September 2011, including in the republic of Karelia (0.8%) and the central Russian Kostroma region (0.7%).

The growth in consumer prices for goods and services was registered in 26 Russian regions. Most of all, prices have risen in the republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, up 0.8%, mainly due to increased food prices (plus 1.3%), and in the Magadan region (0.7%), where the industrial goods price increase amounted to 2.1%.

The consumer price index in Moscow in September 2011 amounted to 100.1% (104.7% over nine months of 2011) and equaled 99.9% in St. Petersburg (104.4%).

The core consumer price index (CCPI), which excludes changes in prices on individual products, subject to the influence of administrative and seasonal factors, totaled 100.5% in September and 105.1% over nine months of 2011 (101.1% in September 2010 and 104.3% in January-September of last year).

Foodstuffs prices in September 2011 decreased 0.6% (up 1.6% in September 2010).

Prices for industrial goods in September 2011 went up 0.7% (up 0.6% in September of last year).

Prices and rates for services in September 2011 declined 0.1%.

The cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services for inter-regional comparisons of the purchasing power in general in Russia amounted to RUR 9,094.4 per month in late September 2011. Its cost decreased 0.5% month-on-month and went up 5.3% over nine months.

The cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services in Moscow in late September was RUR 12 857 per month and grew 0.1% month-on-month and 5.2% over nine months. In St Petersburg it equaled RUR 9 718.3 in the reporting period, down 0.3% compared to August 2011 and up 6.4% since the beginning of the year.

The cost of an average monthly sustenance basket across Russian regions amounted to RUR 2 409.1 in late September. Its cost dropped 4.1% compared to August 2011 and 6.5% since January. 

Price growth in industrial production (C + D + E) in January-September 2011 amounted to 10.7% (8.2% in the corresponding period of 2010). The nature of price dynamics in the reporting period changed under the influence of world markets.

Living standards and population’s income

The real disposable monetary income of Russia’s population, according to preliminary data, went up 3.2% in September year-on-year, the maximum figure for 2011, the Federal State Statistics Service reported. However, this figure has declined since January by 0.2% year on year. The growth of the real disposable monetary income in September, with the exception of seasonal factor, amounted to 0.8%, the Economic Development Ministry said.

An average gross monthly payroll in September 2011, according to preliminary data, amounted to RUR 23 628, up 13.9% year-on-year.

The real disposable monetary income in September 2011 grew 6.2% compared to September 2010 and went up 2.7% from January through September. The growth of the real disposable monetary income in September, excluding the seasonal factor, equaled 1% month-on-month.

Total wages in arrears in the monitored industries totaled RUR 2 389 million on October 1 and went up 2.1% compared to early September.

The economically active population in September 2011 totaled 76.6 million people or above 54% of the total population, the preliminary results of the employment surveys say.

Almost half of the employed population is concentrated in the companies not related to small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). In August 2011 they employed 34.6 million people, or 47.9% of the total employment figure.

The number of unemployed under the ILO criteria totaled, according to preliminary data, 4.6 million people or 6% of the economically active population, the employment surveys said. The federal employment services offices registered as unemployed 1.3 million people, including one million of those, who were receiving unemployment benefits.

Foreign trade

Russia’s exports in September 2011 were estimated at $43.5bn (126.5% compared to September 2010 and 97.5% against August 2011). Exports from the countries outside C.I.S. in the reporting month went up 27.9% year-on-year to $36.9bn and exports from the C.I.S. countries increased 18.8% to $6.5bn. The share of exports from non-C.I.S. states in the total Russia’s exports dropped 0.7% and amounted to 84.2%, while the share of exports from the C.I.S. countries increased respectively.

Increase in exports value in September 2011 compared to September 2010 was mainly due to higher prices for Russia’s top export goods, primarily crude oil.

Imports of goods in September 2011 were estimated at $27.7bn (117.9% year-on-year and 92.7% month-on-month). Imports from the countries outside the C.I.S. in the reporting month increased 15.2% year-on-year and totaled $23.2bn, while imports from the C.I.S. countries went up 33.4% to $4.5bn. The share of non-C.I.S. states in total Russian imports went down 0.6% and equaled 84.9%. At the same time, the share of the C.I.S. states increased respectively.

According to preliminary data of the Federal Customs Service, Russia’s imports from non-C.I.S. countries increased 38.3% from January through September 2011 relative to the imports for the first nine months of last year.

Imports from the countries outside the C.I.S. in September amounted to 116.8% compared to September 2010, customs reported. At the same time, the growth rate of imports decreased compared to previous months of 2011. Purchases of chemical products increased 28.2%, engineering goods 17.6%, foodstuffs 8.1%, textile and footwear 6.6%.

The imports value from non-C.I.S. countries dropped 10.5% in September 2011 month-on-month. At the same time, engineering goods imports dropped 13.7%, textiles and footwear 14.9%, and chemical products 7.9%, while the imports value of foodstuffs and raw materials for their production remained almost at the level of the previous month.

Russia’s foreign trade surplus in September 2011 grew 45.2% compared to September 2010 and reached $15.7bn.

Investment

Despite the volatility on financial markets and high volatility of the Russian rouble in September 2011, the increase in investment in fixed capital reached 11.9% month-on-month, the Federal State Statistics Service said. The country’s Economic Development Ministry estimated it at 1.8% with the exception of seasonal and calendar factors.

The growth of investment activity supports the production growth of investment goods. Thus, the increase in engineering goods production, with the exception of seasonal and calendar factors, was measured by the country’s Economic Development Ministry at 2.6% in September 2011 year-on-year.

One of the indicators of the improvement in the investment climate was the recent agreement between the venture fund Runa Capital and Skolkovo high-tech hub outside Moscow. Under the agreement, the venture fund is to finance Skolkovo resident companies in the next three years. This funding is to give the residents an opportunity to bring to life new ambitious technological projects. Runa Capital, in its turn, will be able to take part in developing innovative technologies created in Skolkovo and receive information on companies looking for investment, as well as on the status and the results of grant applications. Total allocations are reportedly at least $5mn.

Capital outflows from Russia amounted to about $50bn over nine months. Net private capital outflow from Russia in 3q11 reached $18.7bn, including 4.6bn from the banking sector, the Central Bank reported.

Capital outflow from Russia in 2011 could exceed $50bn, said Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach on the sidelines of the Russian Money Market 2011 conference in Moscow in late October.

International reserves, stabilization, Reserve and National Wealth funds

Russia’s international reserves amounted to $479.379bn as of January 1, 2011.

They went up 7.8% from January through September and reached $516.848bn. However, their amount decreased 1.4% by $7.67bn compared to the second quarter of the year.

The Reserve and the National Wealth funds held $115.54bn on October 1, 2011, down 13.3% compared to January ($130.93bn).

Foreign debt

Russia’s sovereign foreign debt totaled $36.002bn or (EURO)26.4429bn as of October 21, 2011, the national Finance Ministry reported.

The bulk of the debt (81%) is comprised of the federal eurobonds issue, which amounted to about $29.183bn.

The external borrowings of the institutional sector practically equaled the country’s international reserves and were assessed at $519.359bn as of October 1.

The largest amount of the debt ($316.994bn) was is attributed to companies from non-financial sectors, which borrowed almost $224bn. The banks have foreign borrowings of $157.023bn.

Oil

The average price of Urals crude amounted to $111.5 per bbl in September 2011, up 44.1% compared to September 2010 and 1.8% month-on-month.

The average price of Urals crude equaled $109.5 per bbl from January through September 2011, an increase of 44.3% compared to the corresponding period of 2010.