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Russian economy in 2010

The growth of Russia’s GDP in 2010 amounted to 3.8%, according to the updated estimate of the Russian Economic Development Ministry.

GDP

The nominal gross domestic product in 2010, according to preliminary data, stood at RUR 46.324 trillion (USD 1.597 trillion) including RUR 13.478 trillion (464.758 billion) in the fourth quarter of the year. The growth of Russia’s GDP in 2010 was 3.8 percent. According to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the government has set the target for GDP growth in 2011 at about RUR 50.4 trillion (USD 1.738 trillion). Based on the models of the Economic Development Ministry, GDP growth will reach 4.2 percent this year.

Industrial production

The industrial production index for 2010 was up to 108.2 percent of the value it had in 2009. In December, the index was up to 106.3 percent of the figure for the last month of 2009.

The industrial production index in mining operations in the reporting period reached 103.6 percent of the index for the year 2009. In December 2010, the index was 102.5 percent of the level where it had been in December 2009.

The 2010 index in the extraction of fuel and energy minerals was 103.1 percent of the 2009 value, while the index in minerals extraction, excluding fuel and energy minerals, was 107.3 percent of the previous year’s total. In December 2010 these indices reached 99.8 percent and 109.6 percent of the corresponding figures for December 2009.

The production index in manufacturing industries in the reporting period reached 111.8 percent of 2009 figures. In December 2010, it stood at 109.7 percent of the value it had in December 2009.

The 2010 index in production and distribution of electricity, gas, and water went up to 104.1 percent compared to the twelve months of 2009, while in December it reached 101.2 percent of the level it had in the final month of 2009.

The share of electricity produced by thermal power plants in total electricity production increased from 65.7 percent in 2009 to 67.3 percent in 2010, while the share of nuclear and hydropower plants decreased from 16.5 percent to 16.4 percent and from 17.8 percent to 16.2 percent respectively.

The cumulative value of goods, services, and labor performed or supplied for the construction industry in 2010 was estimated at RUR 4.2061 trillion, or 99.4 percent of 2009 values. In December, the value stood at RUR 644.8 billion, up 111.6 percent year-on-year. In 2010, real estate developer companies placed orders for the construction of 714 100 new apartments and condos, which is 1.8 percent more than in 2009. In December, the number of new orders was 198 900.

Retail trade in 2010 amounted to RUR 16.4358 trillion, which is 104.4 percent of the results demonstrated in 2009. In December retail trade stood at RUR 1.7644 trillion, or 103.4 percent against the last month of 2009.

Consumer price index and inflation

In December 2010, the consumer price index (CPI) was 101.1 percent. The index measured since the beginning of the year was 108.8 percent.

The growth of consumer prices in the eight Russian federal districts was 1.6 percent or even more. Notably, prices and service rates increased in the republic of Dagestan by up to 2.2 percent due to a 3.5-percent increase in food prices.

In Moscow, the consumer price index for December was 101.1 percent and 109.1 percent since January 2010. In St. Petersburg, it reached 101.2 percent and 109.4 percent respectively.

The value of the minimum monthly “sustenance basket” across Russian regions was RUR 2 625.7 by the end of December, up 4.2 percent month-on-month and 22.7 percent since the beginning of the year.

The value of the “sustenance basket” in Moscow for the same period was RUR 2 993.3, rising 3.8 percent month-on-month (up 22.8 percent since January 2010), while in St. Petersburg this figure stood at RUR 2 893, up 1.1 percent and 12.2 percent respectively.

The cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services in Moscow was RUR 12 225.80 in late December 2010 and grew 1.1 percent since November (up 13.7 percent since the beginning of the year). In St. Petersburg, it totaled RUR 9 133.40 per month and increased 1.1 percent and 12.2 percent respectively.

The core consumer price index (CCPI), which excludes changes in prices for individual products subject to the influence of administrative and seasonal factors, was 101.1 percent in September 2010 (104.3 percent since January). In September 2009, these figures were 100.5 percent and 107.3 percent respectively.

The prices  of industrial producer grew 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2010, with a 3.3 percent growth in August, while in September they went down 1.3 percent. The growth was 8.2 percent since the beginning of the year.

The industrial producer price index totaled 98.7 percent in September 2010.

In December the industrial producer price index stood at 101 percent. For the whole year, the index was at 116.7 percent.

Living standards and income

The real disposable monetary income (income excluding obligatory payments adjusted for the consumer prices index) increased by 4.3 percent in 2010 year-on-year and grew 3.3 percent in December month-on-month.

In general, the average gross monthly salary in 2010 was RUR 21 090, up 11.3 percent compared to 2009. In December, it reached RUR 26 643, up 10.2 percent year-on-year.

On January 1, 2011, according to the information supplied by large companies, wages in arrears in the monitored economic sectors totaled RUR 2.4 billion, having decreased by RUR 827 million from December 1, 2010, down 25.6 percent.

Wages in arrears attributable to the company insolvencies totaled RUR 2.379 billion as of January 1, 2011, or 99.1 percent of the total. The wages in arrears decreased by 24.8 percent by RUR 784 million against December 1, 2010. The wages in arrears attributable to the delayed receipt of funds from budgets of all levels amounted to RUR 21 millions and decreased 67.8 percent by RUR 43 million against December 1, 2010. The deficit of the federal budget amounted to RUR 7 million, down 86.9 percent or RUR 48 million. The regional budget deficit was RUR 5 million (down 5.9 percent), and the deficit of municipal budgets equaled RUR 9 million, having grown almost two-fold by RUR 5 million.

The economically-active population aged 15-72 years (employed plus unemployed) in December 2010 was 75.0 million persons, or about 53 percent of the total population.

In the economically active population, 69.6 million people were classified as engaged in economic activity and 5.4 million as unemployed under ILO criteria, i.e. had no job or gainful employment.

The number of people employed increased by 375 000 persons, up 0.5 percent against December 2009, while the number of unemployed decreased 12.7 percent by 781 000 persons.

The employment rate in December 2010 reached 62.5 percent. At the same time, the unemployment rate, calculated as the ratio of unemployed to the economically-active population, equaled 7.2 percent.

On average, the number of employed individuals in 2010 stood at 69.8 million persons and the number of unemployed equaled 5.6 million. Compared to 2009 statistics, the number of employed persons in 2010 was up by 500 000 persons, or 0.7 percent, and the number of unemployed was down by 700 000, or 11.4 percent.

Foreign debt

Russia’s sovereign foreign debt totaled USD 41.680 billion on January 1, 2011, the Finance Ministry reported. The bulk of that debt (62 percent) consisted of Russia’s Eurobond issues. On June 1, 2010, they totaled almost USD 30.987 billion.

According to the Central Bank’s preliminary estimates, Russia’s foreign debt, including debts of banks and private companies, totaled USD 482.976 billion on January 1, 2011, up 3.4 percent year-on-year.

International trade

Russia’s exports in November 2010 amounted to USD 35.2 billion, up 114.1 percent year-on-year and 100.6 percent month-on-month.

From January to November, exports were estimated to grow 32.7 percent year-on-year and amounted to USD 357.2 billion, including USD 301.9 billion exports in the non-C.I.S. countries (up 33.4 percent year-on-year) and USD 55.3 billion in exports to the C.I.S. states (up 29.1 percent). The share of the countries outside the C.I.S. in Russia’s exports in the reporting period increased by 0.4 percent, and the share of the C.I.S. countries decreased respectively.

The increase in exports value in January-November, compared to the corresponding period of 2009, was due mainly to the rising prices for Russia’s main export goods, primarily crude oil.

Russia’s imports in November were estimated at USD 24.6 billion, up 126.8 percent year-on-year and 100.2 percent month-on-month.

In January-November 2010 imports were estimated to grow 30.1 percent year-on-year and totaled USD 221.4 billion, including USD 189.7 billion from non-C.I.S. states (up 27.5 percent) and USD 31.7 billion from the C.I.S. countries (up 48 percent).

According to preliminary data of the Federal State Statistics Service, the value of imports from the countries outside the C.I.S. in November 2010 went up 35.7 percent year-on-year. Russia’s imports of engineering goods increased by 45.6 percent, textiles and footwear by 43.1 percent, foodstuffs by 23.5 percent, and chemical products by 16.4 percent.

In November 2010, the value of imports from non-C.I.S. countries practically did not change and amounted to 99.5 percent against October. Imports of foodstuffs and raw materials for their production increased by 10.1 percent, chemical products by 1.7 percent, engineering goods by 0.1 percent, while imports of textiles and footwear dropped by 25.1 percent.

From January to October, the value of imports from the countries outside the C.I.S. went up 35.8 percent year-on-year.

Russia’s foreign trade surplus in November 2010 decreased 7.5 percent year-on-year and totaled USD 10.6 billion.

Investment

Investment in Russia’s fixed assets in 2010 increased 6 percent year-on-year to RUR 9.1051 trillion, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) reported.

In December, investment in Russia’s fixed assets totaled RUR 105.1 billion, up 10.1 percent year-on-year and 69.7 percent month-on-month.

According to preliminary estimates of the Russian Central Bank, the net 2010 outflow of capital from the country was USD 22.7 billion.

Reserves

While on January 1, 2010, Russia’s international reserves stood at USD 439.034 billion, on January 1, 2011, they totaled USD 479.379 billion. Thus, in a year’s time, they increased 9.2 percent, or by USD 40.345 billion. However, in the third quarter of 2011, they decreased by USD 10.72 billion, down 2.1 percent.

The Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund held USD 130.93 billion on October 1, 2010, which is 14 percent less than in the beginning of the year (USD 152.08 billion).


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