OAO Sberbank’s Deputy Chairman and Chief Financial Officer Anton Karamzin said the bank, Russia’s biggest, now expects higher profits this year than it had been forecasting, as it maintains its margins and grows corporate loans.
Sberbank profits are likely to be in the range of 230 billion roubles to 250 billion roubles (USD 6.96 billion to USD 8.7 billion) in 2011, Karamzin said in an interview in New York in March. Late last year the bank was pegging that number at just above 200 billion roubles, he said.
The bank also may make an announcement “within the next weeks” about purchasing an investment bank, according to Karamzin, reiterating what Chief Executive German Gref recently said. Karamzin said there is no announcement at this time and reiterated that the bank believes it could grow an investment bank internally, if necessary.
But Karamzin said the bank has concluded it would save about two years of building the “nuts and bolts” if it acquired an operation it sees as important for client relationships. He said an announcement is “possibly imminent,” and that it “likely” will be a Russian bank.
Reports have said the target is likely Troika Dialog, whose chief executive has said the sale of a large stake to Sberbank is an option. Russian media has reported Sberbank is close to acquiring about a third of Troika for USD 450 million to USD 500 million. Troika is part-owned by South Africa’s Standard Bank.
Moderate interest rate increases are “neutral” to “positive” for the bank’s margins in 2011, he said. In an effort to combat rising prices, the Bank of Russia raised interest rates across the board in late February for the first time since the global financial crisis.
The Russian Central Bank began trading the rouble in a wider range, a move that pushed the currency to a two-year high against the dollar. Karamzin said the Central Bank’s moves are “pretty logical” and that they are in line with what had been signaled. He said that he agreed with the comments that the move would be “neutral” to “somewhat positive” for the rouble in the near term.
The move was unlikely to impact Sberbank significantly, he said.
Sberbank, which holds about half of all rouble deposits, isn’t looking for many domestic acquisitions, but is considering international expansion.
It particularly wants to enter Eastern Europe by buying a bigger network institution. Karamzin said Sberbank doesn’t want to enter Eastern European countries one by one, but “could be moving very quickly” if the opportunity arrives.
It is also looking to expand in India and China, Karamzin said.
Inside Russia, Karamzin noted Sberbank is a strong proxy for the economy. He said consumer confidence hasn’t returned fully, but has strengthened, and loan balances should grow.
The bank is currently in the middle of a five-year plan to improve its efficiency and modernize. He said, the bank has already found about USD 100 million in cost savings, adding the plan is on schedule and a draw for investors.
The Russian government is in discussions with the bank to cut its stake in Sberbank from 57.6 percent to 50 percent plus one share. Karamzin said the bank hasn’t decided about an international share sale yet, though one is expected.
Karamzin said his company’s net interest margins were at 6.1 percent for the third quarter of 2010, and initial results based on Russian accounting standards suggest that fourth quarter margins were at 6.3 percent, a figure that should remain unchanged for all of 2011. His profit projections were based on expectations of GDP growth of 4.1 percent in 2011 and inflation of 9 to 10 percent.