Russia’s recognition of the two republics after the Georgian conflict does not present any repercussions for Russia’s relationship with the West.

Russian political analysts believe that a new conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia is impossible. International affairs experts in Russia also believe that the reaction of the West constitutes the acknowledgement – if not the endorsement – of Russia’s position on the situation in the Caucasus.

According to Alexey Makarkin, who serves as the vice president of the Center of Political Technologies, no aggression in the Caucuses has taken place in the last two years because Russia maintained troops on the ground in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Makarkin believes that the events of August 2008 have sent a signal to the Georgian government that Russia will not tolerate aggression.

At the same time, analysts do not think that the resolution of the conflict on a deeper level can be achieved in the foreseeable future. The conflict is now frozen in time, and military power still remains the principal stabilizing factor.

Russian political scientists caution that observers of the situation in the Caucuses should not overvalue the support Western countries have lent to Mikheil Saakashvili. In the words of Alexey Makarkin, even the United States has now taken a different approach to Saakashvili’s regime. While still providing strategic support to Mikheil Saakashvili, the U.S. has tried to keep the Georgian leadership restrained. The United States and Western European countries simply do not want to have strained relations with Russia over the situation in Georgia. 

Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states does not present significant ramifications for Russia’s relationship with the West. According to Makarkin, there seems to be a mutual understanding that the topic of the Caucuses is a secondary issue in relations between Moscow and the West. Western politicians no longer bring up the problem of Georgia in conducting discussions with Russian officials on other issues.

While formal recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia on the part of the West is highly unlikely, it is now clear that the West understands what Russia’s priorities in the region are.  

Nevertheless, Russian political analysts believe that the existing situation is the best for Moscow. Russia’s ultimate goal is the preservation of the status quo in the region. Whether the peace is kept by the prospect of using force or by any other means, Russia considers its position justified. The international community’s reluctance to dissuade Russia from recognizing the seceding republics by threatening to impose sanctions or using other measures amounts to silent acquiesce in the independence of the two breakaway provinces.