According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the slow pace of economic expansion in Russia will stand in the way of critical economic programs that the country’s government is intent on implementing.

In an address to the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, Economist Eric Bergloff of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development noted that if Russia’s growth remains mediocre, the lessons of the economic crisis will not be learned. According to the government’s forecast, Russia’s economic growth will be 4.2 percent in 2011. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has put the figure at 4.6 percent.

While reforms usually originate at times of great economic crisis, the various market participants become more reluctant to bear the burden of the economic costs associated with reforms when resources are scarce. The current situation, where the climate is not bad enough to warrant emergency measures, but also not good enough to provide for economic surplus to fund massive reforms, will not be conducive to long-term stability. Economists warn that Russia’s growth rates are lower than the growth rates for other emerging economies. At the same time, the prospects for the country’s development in the future are not limited to the natural resource sector, but also include the manufacturing industry, especially in view of the high level of skill of the Russian labor force.

According to analysts, in today’s climate, investors analyze the performance of different countries of the world. The recent capital outflows from Russia reflect the decreasing confidence of investors in the strength of the Russian market. Economic models show that Russia’s GDP will rebound to its pre-crisis level only within several years.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development conducted surveys indicating that the most significant factors limiting economic expansion are tax rates, problems with access to financing, the difficulties in obtaining licenses and permits, as well as corruption. The Bank also considers it a weakness for the Russian economy that most of the country’s exports are directed to the European Union. Also of concern are such problems as weak medium business activity, the underdevelopment of the financial sector, and the lack of integration of the research and development sector and the industry.