By Lewis Groswald

Two sides of the same coin

On January 11, 2007, China demonstrated that it has the capability to shoot down a satellite in orbit with a ground-based missile. The United States and several of its allies, including Canada and Australia, lodged formal protests. China has set a potentially dangerous precedent for the future of cooperative manned efforts in space. Suddenly, those who lived to watch Sputnik cross over their heads can’t help but think of what the move on China’s part means. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the U.S. has had the capability to shoot down satellites in orbit since 1985, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. U.S. Defense Department’s use of a Navy missile to shatter a dysfunctional spy satellite gave the U.S. important data that could boost the U.S. ability to destroy foreign space assets.

For the most part, the use of the near-Earth orbit has been peaceful, further fostered by the Outer Space Treaty, which was in part a reaction to proposals that would engender a military presence in space. Cooperation in space also became more appealing than the weaponization of space as a result of the end of the Cold War, and Russia’s ailing and under-funded space program that needed resources that other space agencies could provide. Today the legacy of cooperation lives on as NASA, along with the European, Russian, Canadian, Japanese, and Brazilian Space Agencies are joined together in the greatest space project ever: the International Space Station. An even grander engineering feat than the Apollo program, the ISS brings all of the parties involved together in a project that cannot be done by any one agency alone. Furthermore, although the U.S. built its Skylab space station, it pales in comparison to Russia’s Mir space station, which was larger than the Skylab. This is one reason why Russian expertise on the ISS project is essential both to the overall success of completion of the station, as well as an important factor in keeping costs down.

However, a recent cooling of U.S-Russia relationships has brought worry to some that come 2010 when the Space Shuttle fleet is forced into retirement, the U.S. will be completely reliant upon Russia for all manned spaceflight and ISS resupplying missions. The U.S. and Russia have had a long history of cooperation, dating back to the first rendezvous of an Apollo and a Soyuz capsules in July 1975. Unfortunately, Russia has taken on a more belligerent tone as of late, and within two to three years will be in a position to leverage manned space exploration against the U.S. — at least until the next generation Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (C.E.V.) is completed by NASA, which will be a little under a decade after the cessation of the Shuttle program. Consequently, the U.S. needs to be delicate in its dealings with Russia, or else, if it continues to criticize its government, as it’s been doing in some respect, it may jeopardize U.S. manned space exploration once the time comes to retire Atlantis, Discovery, and Endeavor.

Of course, one must look at recent events in the Middle East, where Iran reports to have successfully launched a missile into space. Iran’s Explorer-i made it into space, but Iran did not release any details regarding the rocket’s altitude. In 2005, Iran announced that it had allocated USD 500 million for space projects in the next five years (compared to the roughly USD 17 billion budget for NASA).

Although Iran’s space program pales in comparison to the other established spacefaring nations, this launch sets a dangerous precedent and further complicates U.S.-Iranian relations. Iran claims peaceful purposes, namely launching satellites into space, but, as U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said, “It is just another troubling development.”

Still, this action provides the U.S. and its space allies with a unique opportunity to engage Iran in a positive manner and use space as a strategic diplomatic tool. Engagement and the promise of space cooperation may well be the best deterrent to Iran’s continuation of missile development, this time using the carrot instead of the stick.

Meanwhile, all eyes will be on China, which as of yet has no intention to cooperate with the international space community in realizing its space plans. China has launched its own Lunar orbiter, the Chang’e I, and plans to build its own manned space capabilities with the hopes of one day landing an unmanned rover on the Moon, returning lunar soil and rock samples back to the Earth, and, perhaps, then landing human beings on the Moon. All of China’s missions are launched on its powerful Long March rocket, and its Shenzhou spacecraft are designed to be compatible with the International Space Station. Yet, when China asked to be a part of the International Space Station, NASA refused, most likely for political reasons. This was a strategic error for the U.S. because politicization of space may very well lead to the militarization of space. If we want to begin the process of serious change in China, then we need to engage China. Instead, such incidents as the arrests of four spies linked to China’s effort to discover information about the U.S. Space Shuttle indicate China’s growing interest in U.S. space technology.