Valdis Dombrovskis, the Prime Minister of Latvia, explained that the fact of the existence of military plans to protect the Baltic region against Russia is not a secret. While the Minister noted that Russia did have the knowledge of the existence of the plan, the specific content of the military plan are classified.

Diplomats responsible for military affairs explained to reporters that they were well aware of the fact that NATO and the United States devised plans for carrying on military operations in the Baltic.

Some commentators say that the papers relating to NATO’s plans to defend Poland and the countries of the Baltic region against Russia’s invasion are going to present negative ramifications for Kremlin’s relationship with the North Atlantic Alliance. The situation appears to be all the more problematic because Russia’s relations with NATO have only recently started to normalize after they were severed in the wake of the war in the Caucasus in August of 2008.

At the same time, the opinions of military experts, as to what fallout would result from the WikiLeaks publication of classified materials are not at all uniformly pessimistic. A number of analysts think that no serious problems can follow, as Moscow’s off-the-record comments about the “secret” publication were calm.

One of the secret files WikiLeaks published contained information that the U.S. and NATO were devising a new defense doctrine to safeguard the independence of the Baltic states in the event of Russia’s attack.

In early 2010, NATO’s strategy to protect Poland, a military plan known under the code name of Eagle Guardian, was enlarged to apply to the countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The military plan provided for the deployment of nine NATO divisions from the U.S., Britain, Germany, and Poland in the event of Russia’s aggressive moves. 

According to WikiLeaks, the final program received approval during the Alliance’s Summit in Lisbon, at the very same forum where Anders Fogh Rassmussen, who serves as the Secretary General of the Alliance assured Russia that NATO does not view it as a threat. The document that was leaked by the website appears to have been signed by the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The document states that the information pertaining to the plans for defending Poland and the countries of the Baltic region must be kept in total secrecy.

Once the leaks got out, a spokesman of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that such publications cause a lot of questions and bewilderment for Russia. “In its discussions with NATO, Russia has repeatedly raised the question about the need to ensure that there is no military planning aimed against one another,” the Foreign Ministry representative noted. “Russia is not building up its military presence near the borders of the countries mentioned in the release. On the contrary, it is systematically reducing heavy weaponry in the Kaliningrad region and conducting measures to reduce its military potential on the western borders,” the diplomat said.

Also, for the last several years Russia has been voicing its strong opposition against America’s plans to construct a radar station and position missile intercepting batteries in Poland and the Czech Republic. America’s response always was to the effect that the systems were to be used against Iran. 

Dmitry Rogozin, the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation in NATO made a statement that he will request from the Alliance any and all documents concerning the secret plan. Rogozin also explained that if NATO continues to treat Russia as an enemy, the Alliance would be committing a grievous error. Russia believes that it would be proper for NATO to scrap the plan. In the view of Russian military officials, NATO should not waste its time preparing war plans for a confrontation with Russia.

At the same time, Dmitry Rogozin said that what has happened is a loss of reputation of NATO. NATO’s statements as to the Alliance’s desire to work with Russia do not appear to be sincere. 

The information contained in the published documents flatly contradicts the terms of a joint declaration that NATO members adopted during the latest NATO-Russia summit, where the two sides agreed that the countries of the Russia-NATO Council will not threaten to use military force against each other.

Still, Moscow diplomats responsible for military affairs explained to reporters that they were well aware of the fact that NATO and the United States devised plans for carrying on military operations in the Baltic. The Alliance developed specific plans for encircling, dismembering, and destroying the Russian forces based at Kaliningrad as much as five to six years ago.   

As such, the director of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Problems Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov stated that the publications of WikiLeaks came as no surprise. The whole purpose of a military alliance is to provide mechanisms for countering outside threats. Without such plans, there would simply be no need for the existence of any alliance. Russia, of course, has always had and still has plans for defensive actions in the Baltic.   

At the same time, Russian military officials said that they had a hard time understanding the purpose of air patrols by NATO fighters over the Baltic states. NATO refused to take part in developing a joint program for responding to real threats in the region, and proceeded to conduct periodic exercises to counteract “imaginary threats” that could emanate from a terrorists’ air strike, which would be extremely unlikely.

Colonel Viktor Murakhovski, who served at the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces prior to his retirement, suggested that the Baltic military action plan of NATO is nothing more than military theorizing. Thus, it is not likely that the discovery of the plan’s existence will compromise the relationship between Russia and NATO. The Colonel further explained that the plan to activate nine divisions of NATO in the Baltic region would not have been possible anyway in view of the military reality that would exist in the region.

Russia’s plans for defending its interests in the Baltic, which are also purely theoretical, are likely to involve the cooperation of the Belarusian army. In effect, Russian military plans likely call for an asymmetrical response, as the presence of Russian forces in the region is small.  

According to Vladimir Yevseiev of Russia’s Center of Public Policy Research, the secret cables released by WikiLeaks are designed to create a provocation. At the same time, in his view, the documents merely show the antagonism between the Republican and the Democratic Parties in the United States. As such, Russia appears to be only tangentially involved. Russia’s small forces in the Baltic do not present any danger of invasion for the countries concerned. Thus, political expert Tatyana Stanovaya based at the Center for Political Technologies argues that the incident is not likely going to influence Russia’s dealings with NATO, the U.S., Germany, or even the countries of the Baltic region. The new discoveries, rather, place into the hands of Kremlin officials new bargaining chips and trump cards. Moscow has for an extended period of time voiced great opposition to the U.S. intention of installing a missile defense complex in Poland and the Czech Republic. The papers that have been disclosed through WikiLeaks show that Poland requested from the U.S. protection against Russia, not Iran. The discovery of the secret correspondence considerably weakens the position of the United States that the defense systems were necessary to counter the threat coming from Iran.