Over the past five years, the Russian electricity retailing market has recorded moderate growth but experienced a significant slowdown in 2020. However, the market recovered with strong growth in 2021, and this growth is expected to accelerate further in 2022 and beyond.

The market had total revenues of $28.1 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% between 2016 and 2021.

The slowdown in growth in 2020 was mainly due to the recessionary impacts of COVID-19, including lockdown measures and social distancing regulations that reduced business activity. On the supply side, the fall in Russia’s gas and oil production was the largest of any single country in 2020, according to BP. Additionally, exports fell by 11% due to lower worldwide demand.

Market consumption volume increased with a CAGR of 0.5% between 2016 and 2021, reaching a total of 930.8 TWh in 2021. However, the market’s volume is expected to fall to 912.0 TWh by the end of 2026, representing a CAGR of -0.4% for the 2021-2026 period. The industrial segment had the highest volume in the market in 2021, with a total of 339.7 TWh, followed by the commercial segment and public services with 300.0 TWh.

Residential energy consumption increased due to an increase in work-from-home activity and consumers’ spending more time indoors.

The market is forecast to accelerate with an anticipated CAGR of 9.9% over 2021-2026, expected to drive the market to a value of $45.1 billion by the end of 2026.

The market is forecast to return to healthy growth over the next five years, with 2022 expected to be a particularly strong year with a growth forecast of 14.2%. Growth will be driven by a resumption of exports as global demand returns to pre-pandemic levels and recovering business activity, which will boost domestic electricity demand. However, the Russian military engagement in Ukraine may cause an unpredictable future with volatile prices and global sanctions impacting the national economy.