Within some 15 years, the Russian agricultural complex is likely to take over 10 percent of the world’s food market, according to the strategy for Russia’s agriculture sector development under the leadership of the ex-minister of agriculture Elena Skrynnik, who now heads the Institute of Agrarian Policy.

Commenting on the intentions of the Russian government to adopt a long-term program for agricultural sector development, Elena Skrynnik noted that the Strategy-2035 that the Institute developed with the assistance of industry experts takes into account the key trends in the modern world and the domestic agrarian and industrial complex. Russia’s long-term goals are to preserve and strengthen the nation’s food security, as well as to promote Russian products on the world’s markets.

Strategy-2035 is consistent with the plans charted by the executive branch, including the Doctrine of Food Security, and the plan’s aiming point is to achieve agricultural records. The first and the most basic task facing the Russian agricultural industry is to create a technology-based national food market with a pronounced environmental dimension. The second component entails global export expansion.

According to Ms. Skrynnik, Russia’s agricultural complex is capable of more than doubling the production of agricultural products. The conservative scenario sees the market’s value of as much as RUB12.2 trillion (USD206 billion), while the innovative scenario provides for a market size of RUB16.7 trillion (USD280 billion). At the same time, the share of agricultural products as a percentage of Russia’s GDP is likely to grow at six percent per annum. Agricultural exports are predicted at USD150 billion. Exports are estimated to reach from 18 to 36 percent of total production. Under the innovative scenario, the share of exports could be as high as 53 percent.

According to Elena Skrynnik, Strategy-2035 is based on considerations of a purely practical nature. First, Russia’s domestic agriculture can be successful only with investment growth and the continuation of state support. Second, an important part of the Strategy is to preserve and enhance the human capital. Third, Strategy-2035 makes it a point to ensure consumer protection by means of systemic quality improvements that would be independent of any of the external factors. Fourth, the strategy aims at bringing Russia to technological independence, including the creation of the country’s own selection and genetic pool, the introduction of the Internet of things, as well as blockchain technologies. In the fifth place, the new strategy is designed to preserve a dynamic balance between the key treks of Russia’s agricultural and industrial complex, including production regionalization.

President Vladimir Putin recently said that the agro-industrial complex is becoming the largest non-oil exporter of all Russia’s industries.

According to Ms. Skrynnik, in implementing the strategy by year 2035 Russia will increase meat exports by a factor of 40, vegetable oil by a factor of three, olives by a factor of 12, and sugar by a factor of 7.4. Russian seeds will account for 70 to 90 percent of all agricultural production grown in the country.

Ms. Skrynnik believes that adhering to Strategy-2035 would allow Russia to come out on top not only in the global grain segment, but also in the high value-added segments.

In the near term, Russia’s food security will be at record levels. Russia’s first quarter 2017 statistics show that imports account for only 0.2 percent of total cereal imports. Other food categories where domestic production dominates include sausage products, where the share of imports stands at 1.6 percent; flour, with imports of 1.8 percent; poultry, where foreign products account for 4.1 percent; and pork, whose imports stand at 8.3 percent. Cheese imports remain high at 27.7 percent, although they too have declined significantly since 2014, when 48.4 percent of all cheese being sold in Russia was imported.

Russia’s Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Viktor Evtukhov said that the country attained 95 to 100 percent self-sufficiency in bread, milk, sugar, cereals, meat, fish, eggs, and pasta.

Furthermore, according to the Russian Institute of Agricultural Marketing, Russian will reduce imports of fresh vegetables to less than 20 percent, down from 35 percent today, as early as in 2018.