Bloomberg has estimated that the U.S. tariff of 200% on Russian aluminum and aluminum products, which will be implemented on March 10, 2023, will have little impact on the U.S. market. The insignificant nature of the tariff’s impact is due to the fact that U.S. consumers have been reducing their purchases of Russian aluminum since the sanctions against UC Rusal. In 2022, Russian metal accounted for only 3% of total U.S. imports. The U.S. industry has largely switched to alternative suppliers in the Middle East, India, Argentina, and Australia, according to research company Harbor Intelligence.

Additionally, American buyers began refusing Russian aluminum after the 2018 sanctions against Russian billionaires, which caused a sharp rise in metal prices. By late 2022, U.S. dependence on the Russian metal had reduced to one-third of what it was in 2016 and 2017, according to the U.S. Aluminum Association.

The U.S. announced the duty on February 24, and it will come into effect on March 10, 2023. On February 24, aluminum prices fell by almost 2%, to $2,349, according to the LME exchange.