The Russian paper and paperboard market experienced robust growth of 4.0% in 2021 and is expected to continue growing during the forecast period of 2021-2026, as the COVID-19 pandemic subsides and demand for packaging products rises. Despite the market’s anticipated growth trajectory, uncertainties have arisen in the paper and paperboard market in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in February 2022.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a mixed impact on the Russian paper and paperboard market in 2020. While demand for newspaper, printing, and writing paper declined due to the reduction in the operations of commercial and educational establishments, demand for other paper and paperboard products, such as packaging paper, household, and sanitary paper, increased, particularly due to the growing online retail sector.

The market value of the Russian paper and paperboard market reached $7.4 billion in 2021, showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6% between 2016 and 2021.

Market consumption volume increased with a CAGR of 1.4% between 2016 and 2021, reaching a total of 7.3 billion units in 2021. The market volume is expected to decline to seven billion units by the end of 2026, representing a CARC of -0.7% for the 2021-2026 period.

The growth of the paper and paperboard market in Russia is driven by the rising demand for paper-based packaging, which is due to the increasing shift of consumption from traditional to online retail, with the latter requiring more secondary packaging. Additionally, concerns over sustainable packaging continue to favor paper-based packaging, boosting demand further.

In 2021, the other paper and paperboard segment was the market’s most lucrative, with total revenues of $6.2 billion, equivalent to 83.6% of the market’s overall value. The printing and writing paper segment contributed revenues of $1.1 billion in 2021, equating to 14.4% of the market’s aggregate value.

The performance of the market is expected to accelerate with an anticipated CAGR of 10.1% for the five years 2021-2026, driving the market to a value of $12.0 billion by the end of 2026.

The expected return of economic activity to normal with the gradual lift of containment measures through the immunization of the population will support demand for paper and paperboard products. Against the backdrop of tightening supply, he market’s recovery may lead to a rise in prices, with production costs to climb higher as virgin pulp becomes scarcer amid reduced forest crops. Additionally, production costs are set to rise due to increased logistics costs, as the pandemic reduced the supply of air and marine cargo volume, leading to higher freight rates.