The struggle for influence in Egypt between the U.S. and Russia continues as U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visits the country for official talks with the Foreign Minister and President. Blinken’s visit to Egypt is part of a broader Middle East tour, which includes visits to Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Given the recent terrorist attacks in Jerusalem, the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and attacks on Iranian military facilities by unknown UAVs, it is natural for Washington to try to reduce tensions in the region. However, the talks with Egyptian partners will not only focus on security issues and the situation in the Middle East region, but also on economic cooperation between the two countries. During a joint press conference with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri, Blinken emphasized that expanding trade and economic cooperation with Egypt is a priority for the U.S. in bilateral relations, while Shukri stated that Cairo is relying on America’s assistance in overcoming its economic crisis.

Indeed, the Egyptian economy is currently facing significant challenges, including high inflation and a considerable depreciation of the national currency.

The recent talks between Washington and Cairo have once again brought up the issue of the significance of Egypt as a North African country for world powers who are searching for a new global balance of power. Egypt has always been important to Russia, with close relations dating back to Soviet times, and in recent years, the two countries have had good dynamics and almost no disagreements. In 2021, this positive attitude was reflected in a 10-year agreement on comprehensive cooperation. For Russia, Egypt is also a crucial partner in resolving international issues in the Middle East, particularly in Libya’s long-term political crisis, and in assisting the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, Moscow’s primary ally in the region, to return to the international arena.

Egypt is also an important market for Russian agricultural products, particularly grain, engineering products, and military equipment. Additionally, Egypt provides robust demand for these goods, which is especially significant in the case of an African country, as it does not purchase goods using funds from loans previously granted by Russia.

The fight for influence over Egypt is due to the country’s immense significance for the entire Middle East, a region with vast reserves of resources needed by the world economy, but which is constantly embroiled in numerous conflicts.

According to Ivan Bocharov, an expert from the Russian International Affairs Council, despite facing numerous problems, Egypt has achieved political stability and a good level of economic growth after the Arab Spring and the subsequent military coup. As a result, Egypt is a powerful player in the region, able to establish working relationships with all regional actors, making it an excellent mediator of conflicts. Additionally, its geographic position on the Red Sea coast makes Egypt an essential player, as a significant amount of world trade passes through the Red Sea and the Egyptian-controlled Suez Canal. This trade includes marine supplies of hydrocarbons, which are vital for European countries, particularly in light of their confrontation with Russia.

Recently, the Frankfurter Allgemeine noted that the Red Sea has become a focal point of intersection for the geopolitical interests of many powerful players. Consequently, there is a hidden rivalry for influence over Egypt, particularly as the United States and several European countries have been successful in securing their military presence in Djibouti, while Russia’s attempts to locate its naval base in Sudan were unsuccessful. Thus, Russia is now in a difficult position, particularly after the introduction of harsh international sanctions. Although Egypt voted in favor of the U.N. General Assembly resolution demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, it did not intend to break economic ties with Russia and remained neutral, guided by its interests.  

As soon as the anti-Russian sanctions were implemented, local politicians and experts quickly noted that they have significantly diminished the Russian Federation’s capacity to uphold trade and technological relations with Egypt.

The Russian section of the Suez Canal industrial zone, established by the Egyptian government to entice foreign investment, faced the threat of closure, while the construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant, El-Dabaa, being built by Rosatom, was expected to slow down. The trade of wheat and other agricultural products from Russia has been hindered, as most major Russian banks have been disconnected from the SWIFT system and insurers are unwilling to provide their services to ships transporting Russian goods.

Additionally, Western nations exert political pressure on countries that persist in collaborating with Russia. Gamal Zahran, a political science professor at the University of Suez, expressed apprehension that Egypt may have to relinquish its strategic alliance with the Russian Federation to maintain its relationships with Western partners. Such a relinquishment may not be directly declared, but it could become evident in trade statistics and the number of new joint initiatives.

Egypt has consistently endeavored to attract Russian tourists, who constitute a significant portion of the country’s overall tourist influx. For this purpose, the country made substantial efforts to reestablish air travel after the Sinai terrorist attack and the pandemic. However, tour operators reported a decline in Russian demand for this destination last fall, due to a large number of flights and the oversupply of tours, which caused a decline in the cost of tours to Egypt.

The success of any aspect of cooperation between Egypt and Russia is crucial in shaping the overall perception of each other and their significance. If economic cooperation with Russia fails to meet expectations, Egypt may have to shift its attention to other countries. In fact, the head of the Egyptian Foreign Ministry has already mentioned the need for U.S. aid to overcome the economic crisis, indicating a shift in the Arab Republic’s foreign policy priorities.

Similar changes are also taking place in the field of security. Despite the strong recommendations of its Western partners, Egypt has not completely abandoned all military contracts with Russia, including the order of 500 T-90 MS tanks. However, other areas of military-technical cooperation remain uncertain. After years of delaying the sale of F-15 fighters to Egypt, the U.S. has finally given the green light to the deal. General Kenneth McKenzie, Commander of the U.S. Armed Forces in the Middle East, announced that the Biden administration has already made a decision in principle on the matter. Furthermore, during his visit to the U.S. in December 2022, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi received additional defense guarantees from the U.S. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin mentioned that the parties will continue to collaborate on the interoperability of air defense and missile defense systems, as well as maritime security.

In the past year, there were joint air and naval exercises between the U.S. and Egypt. Taking into account Egypt’s status as a significant non-NATO U.S. partner since the 1980s, the target of Cairo’s defense and security efforts appears clear. However, it is premature to conclude that the competition for influence in the Middle East, particularly in Egypt, is over.