Russia’s GDP totaled RUB22.190 trillion (USD370 billion) in the third quarter of 2016, Rosstat reported on December 13, 2016, confirming the initial estimate that the GDP declined 0.4 percent on an annual basis following declines of 0.6 percent in the second quarter and 1.2 percent in the first quarter of the year. The third quarter GDP deflator, a measure of the level of prices of all new goods and services, stood at 104.7 percent relative to the corresponding figure for the third quarter of 2015. The GDP in the nine-month period from January to September 2016 was RUB60.730 trillion (USD1 trillion), which reflects a decline of 0.7 percent on an annual basis.

The wholesale and retail sector made the biggest contribution to the economic contraction in the third quarter. The gross value added to the sector fell 3.0 percent in annual terms in the third quarter following declines of 1.2 percent in the second quarter and 2.5 percent in the first quarter.

The gross value added (a measure of the value of goods and services produced in the economy) in the manufacturing sector declined 1.2 percent in the third quarter after growing 0.3 percent in the second quarter and declining 4.0 percent in the first quarter. In the extractive sector, the value added rose 2.2 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in the second quarter and 2.1 percent in the first quarter. In the utilities sector (electricity, gas, and water), the value added rose 1.8 percent in the third quarter following a growth of 0.5 percent in the second quarter. The valued added in the construction sector was a negative 2.9 percent, following negative values of 9.5 percent in the second quarter and 1.6 percent in the first quarter.

In transportation and communications, the gross value added stood at zero percent in the third quarter following a decline of 1.0 percent in the second quarter and 0.5 percent in the first quarter.

The Economic Development Ministry expects the GDP to decline 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter on an annual basis and 0.6 percent in 2016 as a whole.

Under the Economic Development Ministry’s “baseline+” scenario with the oil price of USD48 per barrel, which the Ministry considers as the most probable one, the GDP will grow 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2017, accelerating to one percent in the second quarter of the new year, 1.2 percent in the third quarter and 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Overall economic growth in 2017 will be 1.1 percent under this scenario.