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Will Washington lift sanctions against Russia in 2017?

The victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential elections may well benefit Russia – many analysts had already predicted that Trump’s candidacy was the preferable one for the Russian establishment. After Trump was declared the winner in the presidential race, the first international leader to congratulate him was Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. “Russia is ready to do everything possible to return its relations with the U.S. to a stable trajectory,” announced President Putin.

 

“We heard the campaign statements of the U.S. presidential candidate that aimed to restore relations between Russia and the U.S. We understand and are well aware that this will not be an easy thing to do, considering the degradation which, unfortunately, U.S.-Russia relations are in,” said President Putin.

 

According to the trade volume statistics for the eight-month period from January to August 2016, the U.S. is the sixth among all of Russia’s foreign trading partners – 10th in terms of Russia’s export volumes and third in terms of imports. Commodity turnover between Russia and the U.S. in this period declined by 14.5 percent to USD12.2 billion, and Russia’s exports dropped in monetary value by 15.42 percent to USD5.5 billion; although they grew in physical volume by 5.24 percent.

 

According to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, from January to August 2016, Russian exports to the U.S. consisted of mineral products (33.5 percent), metals (30.7 percent), chemical products and rubber (18.5 percent), machines, equipment, and vehicles (6.8 percent), as well as precious stones (5.8 percent).

 

Representatives of the government’s economic bloc, as well as businessmen, are not hiding their expectations concerning the thaw in relations with the U.S. The business circles are also waiting for the improvement in trade and economic cooperation between the U.S. and Russia.

 

“Trump’s victory is a sign. In general, it signifies the beginning of a period of simple decisions both in politics and in the economy,” noted the plenipotentiary for the protection of entrepreneur rights Boris Titov in an interview.

 

At the same time, Mr. Titov sees a downside to Trump’s victory. The main risk is the further fall in oil prices. “Among Trump’s election campaign promises was the opening of all American oil reserves, which means a further fall of oil prices, something that will add problems to our economy.”

 

One of Russian businessmen’s main hopes is that with President-elect Trump at the helm, America’s sanctions against Russia would get phased out. “During his electoral campaign, Donald Trump demonstrated a more favorable attitude to Russia than any other candidate, including Mike Pence. It is entirely possible that the hopes for favorable changes towards Russia in America’s foreign policy, including the lifting of the sanctions, will serve as a boost in stock market quotations for sanctioned Russian companies,” said Mr. Titov.

 

Chief economist at SaxoBank Steen Jakobsen predicts that the U.S. may partially lift the sanctions against Russia in 2017. “In 2017 the U.S., most likely, will lift the sanctions, or parts of them,” he said.

 

The sanctions that the U.S. imposed on Russia restrict Russian oil and gas companies from attracting capital from American financial markets, as well as from sourcing equipment and technologies for extracting deep-shelve and difficult-to-access reserves.

 

“We believe that the sanctions against us are not only unjust, but they also damage the interests of our American partners,” said Rosneft’s press secretary Mikhail Leontyev. “But there are grounds to suppose that Donald Trump, unlike the previous U.S. administration, does not intend to hurt the interests of American companies.”

 

According to Mr. Leontyev, if President-elect Trump manages to realize his promises concerning the protection of America’s industry, this would also resolve the issue of the sanctions.

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